I sold half — AUD $26,000. Told myself I was being rational. Held the remaining half as a "let it…
T=0: The Decision
AUD $87,000 in crypto (ETH and BTC) at mid-2021 peak. By October the portfolio had dropped 40% from its high. I had a decision: sell while it was still worth AUD $52,000, or hold and hope for recovery.
I sold half — AUD $26,000. Told myself I was being rational. Held the remaining half as a "let it ride" position. Watched it drop a further 80% from where I sold.
Honest post-mortem. Learning something that costs less to learn in the future.
6 Months Out
Still holding the second half. It is now worth AUD $9,000. I have convinced myself it will recover. This is exactly the thinking I already identified as irrational. The loss aversion is not theoretical — it is visceral and present every day.
“Set your exit criteria before you invest, not while you are losing. "I will sell if it drops below X" is a rule you can follow. "I will sell when it feels right" is a rule that does not function under pressure.”
5/10